What Kind Of Fool Am I?
Only a fool would try to call this race two weeks out from Iowa, three weeks from New Hampshire. This is the craziest, most unsettled primary contest I can remember. And the craziness is bipartisan! The Republicans are even wobblier than the Democrats this year.
Cool!
You can make an argument for just about any outcome. (Except a Kucinich victory.) But here's my own worth-the-virtual-paper-it's-printed-on prediction:
The Democrats:
Edwards wins Iowa by a hair. Obama and Hillary tied for second. Edwards gets no New Hampshire bounce and the lack of a win by Obama starts a slow leak in his balloon. Hillary squeaks by in New Hampshire. From there she's unstoppable.
The Republicans:
Huckabee takes Iowa, but Romney is much closer than he's polling. Moral victory to Romney, who then takes New Hampshire. McCain out. Thompson drops out after Huckabee grabs South Carolina. Giuliani's in free-fall and the Big State Bonanza is a mixed bag, some Romney, some Huckabee, some Giuliani. Giuliani drops out which hands the decision to Romney.
More Fun:
Ron Paul accepts the nomination of the Libertarian Party and launches a well-financed third party bid. Professional crazy person Alan Keyes launches his own 3rd party bid financed by the Tinfoil Hat Association.
Michael Bloomberg decides against his own 3rd party bid. Evangelical turnout in the general drops by 5% on the Mormon thing.
In the End:
Romney proves stronger than Democrats expect, but Ron Paul plays Nader to Romney's Gore. Hillary in a squeaker when women voters move decisively her way. 52-48, Clinton in the popular vote.
If you don't like that, I could write you equally plausible scenarios for Obama, McCain, Edwards, Giuliani, Thompson, a brokered convention resulting in Jeb Bush, two brokered conventions resulting in Jeb and Richardson, or Haley Barbour and Al Gore, or fill in the blanks. Or we could have a successful 3rd party bid by Bloomberg. Or Kang and Kodos.
Cool!
You can make an argument for just about any outcome. (Except a Kucinich victory.) But here's my own worth-the-virtual-paper-it's-printed-on prediction:
The Democrats:
Edwards wins Iowa by a hair. Obama and Hillary tied for second. Edwards gets no New Hampshire bounce and the lack of a win by Obama starts a slow leak in his balloon. Hillary squeaks by in New Hampshire. From there she's unstoppable.
The Republicans:
Huckabee takes Iowa, but Romney is much closer than he's polling. Moral victory to Romney, who then takes New Hampshire. McCain out. Thompson drops out after Huckabee grabs South Carolina. Giuliani's in free-fall and the Big State Bonanza is a mixed bag, some Romney, some Huckabee, some Giuliani. Giuliani drops out which hands the decision to Romney.
More Fun:
Ron Paul accepts the nomination of the Libertarian Party and launches a well-financed third party bid. Professional crazy person Alan Keyes launches his own 3rd party bid financed by the Tinfoil Hat Association.
Michael Bloomberg decides against his own 3rd party bid. Evangelical turnout in the general drops by 5% on the Mormon thing.
In the End:
Romney proves stronger than Democrats expect, but Ron Paul plays Nader to Romney's Gore. Hillary in a squeaker when women voters move decisively her way. 52-48, Clinton in the popular vote.
If you don't like that, I could write you equally plausible scenarios for Obama, McCain, Edwards, Giuliani, Thompson, a brokered convention resulting in Jeb Bush, two brokered conventions resulting in Jeb and Richardson, or Haley Barbour and Al Gore, or fill in the blanks. Or we could have a successful 3rd party bid by Bloomberg. Or Kang and Kodos.
This entry was posted by Michael Reynolds, on
Thursday, December 20, 2007.
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7:27 PM
Alan Keyes is a nutburger. Doesn't he remind you of Marvin Martian when he orates?