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Flip Flops in Florida.

I took a couple days off. Did anything happen while I was away?

Hah.

Mitt the Flip flopped in Florida. He had all the money. He had a leg up from the sharpening focus on the economy. He should have won. Instead he lost by 5% in a four-way race. (Five if you count Ron Paul. And really, why would you?)

Yes, the Crist endorsement of McCain hurt Romney, but more, I think, is the fact that people just don't really like the guy. Part of this may come from the campaign, where anyone who can read between the lines can see that McCain, Giuliani and Huckabee all kind of like each other, and all hate Romney.

Don't look for policy explanations of Romney's rejection. I think it's just Mitt's core Mittness. His distilled essence of Mittery. His ineffable Mittitude. Sometimes the dog just won't eat the dog food.

Another beating for talk radio. Another rejection of Rush Limbaugh. Boo hoo. The GOP is moving on from all that. Right now you'd want to put your money on Big Mac to go all the way. The GOP is likely going to choose a candidate who is despised by almost everyone in the GOP hierarchy. We live in amazing times: it seems Republican voters may not be sheep after all.

Giuliani out. Edwards out. Giuliani definitely to endorse McCain. I'm betting Edwards endorses Obama. It's his only move if he hopes for any sort of political career in the near term.

I think Hillary is in a lot more trouble than many pundits think. I feel as if the Democratic body is simply rejecting this Hillary tissue. It feels like a massive, systemic rejection. A collective, "No." Watch the California polls. Right now, in ten day old polls, she's up by ten. Betcha the next round has Obama within the MOE.

Teddy's endorsement was huge. It gives cover to all the super-D's who want to vote their hearts and get behind Obama. Probably all that can save Hillary now is the Latino vote. But I'm not so sure brown won't decide to graciously hold the door open for black.

I wonder if Bill Richardson's phone has stopped ringing, even for a minute, in the last 24 hours? He's popular Bill today that's for sure. If Richardson endorses and actively campaigns for Obama I think Hillary should not ask for whom the mariachi band strums. It strums for her.

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“Flip Flops in Florida.”

  1. Blogger Transplanted Lawyer Says:

    While I'm disappointed in Giuliani's implosion -- he was, I thought, the most moderate Republican choice available -- the grenade-thrower in me is absolutely tickled to see the establishments of both parties have to take it where the sun don't shine like this.

  2. Blogger Randy (Internet Ronin) Says:

    According to the LA Times/CNN poll, which weighted for absentees, Clinton is up 17 points. That's because she leads by 23 among absentee voters and they are half the electorate. Her statewide ad buys only began a couple of days ago, BTW.

    Edwards didn't endorse today, as you know. AP-Yahoo poll a short time ago reported 40% of Edwards supporters said Clinton was their second choice. 25% Obama.

    Look at the states involved, Michael. Look at the early voter numbers, the concentration of Hispanics in them and figure out a way Obama comes out on top. Hope you do, but I think it is over.

  3. Blogger Michael Reynolds Says:

    TL:
    Is this not just the best election ever? Or at least since 1968 when the country seemed to be burning down around our ears.

    Has the Governator of CA endorsed McCain yet, do you know? If not I bet he does.

    Randy:
    RCP average has it Hillary by 12. But I did misremember the dates. The polls are more recent than I thought. But I'm telling you, I just feel it's going to change suddenly and dramatically. Give Obama Illinois, maybe MA and CT with Teddy's support, CO off the crunchie vote, then if he can tip CA he's sitting pretty.

  4. Blogger Randy (Internet Ronin) Says:

    Connecticut is a dead heat, I believe, which is good for Obama. But then it is hard to vote absentee there as well, IIRC. Illinois, like NY, means little in the big scheme of things - they cancel each other out. Michael, half the votes in California are almost in and she's leading by 20+. Running ads after half the electorate has voted won't do much good. The only question is does she clean up in the CD-by-CD delegate totals or is it closer. I think Colorado may be another heavy early voter state. Oregon definitely is. That spells trouble when Name ID and an occasional glance at the news is all anyone voting had to go on. Look at Florida. She won by 20 among absentees, only 15 on election day. Not enough movement and not fast enough. Only 6 days left. Stranger things have happened, but... in most of these states, you're looking for a 20-point swing. I just don't find any solid evidence that that is happening. Didnt happen in New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Florida.

  5. Blogger Alan Stewart Carl Says:

    Either Obama is about to surge or this is Ford/Reagan in '76 and just enough fuddy-duddies will pick the party-approved product to keep the establishment in charge, thus paving the way for the real Obama surge sometime in the next two elections.

    I hope you're right but I fear Hillary is going to pull this one out. But it will go past next Tuesday.

  6. Blogger Randy (Internet Ronin) Says:

    Having asked the question, I thought the least I could do was provide you with a link to a plausible answer that you might actually appreciate and enjoy.