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Indies in NH.

By the way, watch the independents in New Hampshire. The general election will be all about the indie vote. So, given New Hampshire's open system where indies can go Blue or Red, will they turn out for McCain or Obama? And will that be an indicator of where the indie vote would go in a general matchup between those two?

This entry was posted by Michael Reynolds, on Monday, January 07, 2008. You can leave your response.

“Indies in NH.”

  1. Blogger Burt Likko Says:
    9:30 AM  

    Good news for Democrats: the answers to your questions are: Obama, and yes, at least in areas not dominated by evangelicals or where economic concerns prevail over social ones.

  2. Blogger Unknown Says:
    12:50 PM  

    What TL said. Big time. Will also be interesting to see total turnout for both primaries. The GOP turnout in Iowa was about half the Democrats despite having as heated (and expensive) a campaign. Another interesting tidbit will be turnout among young voters, typically abysmal but they supposedly equalled the over 65 set in Iowa where they usually are outnumbered 5:1. If both those anomalies prove true in NH, then it really could be a trend that could prove devastating to the GOP in November (and not just in the Presidential race). If they don't, we're back to politics as usual.

  3. Blogger Unknown Says:
    9:30 PM  

    Indies turned out 60-40 for the Dems. Sounds about like Iowa. But, unlike Iowa, among indies casting ballots in the Dem primary, Obama won only 40%. Not expected by any camp, I think. Now I wonder what happened between Thursday and now that changed so many minds once again....

    FWIW, my guess: the debate & the tears. Obama's debate performance was adequate but not inspiring. I think the Iraq answer was partisan not unifying (thus not matching his rhetoric) and reminded people that he is either rather naive or just another old-fashioned pol. And hey, if he's just another pol, she & Bill are more experienced so "Lets go for the best." The near-tears were a reminder that the press has been merciless about her while basically ignoring the foibles of almost everyone else. Clinton apparently carried the women's vote. Excessive press coverage and public psychological analysis over this incident probably pushed a lot of them into her camp in the end. (Some of this "analysis" by me is tongue-in-cheek but the rest is serious and it is too hard to figure out which is which so I'll leave it up to you.)
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