I think McCain supporters who think he has a chance against Obama are kidding themselves. I don't think McCain will just lose in that match-up, I think he'll be blown away. A Mondale-sized loss.
That guess has nothing to do with the New York Times' tissue-paper story today. It has nothing to do even with McCain's silly and false attack on Obama's pledge to go after Al Qaeda leaders in Pakistan -- a pledge that is word for word identical to Mr. Bush's own statements.
I'm talking about the fact that it's going to be past versus future. John McCain is running on Vietnam and Iraq. Things move quickly in the US. Iraq is already in the rearview mirror for most people. Vietnam might as well be World War I.
Obama is all about the future. I don't mean his policies. I don't just mean his rhetoric. I mean his face. His sound. His wife and the young children who will be playing in the White House. Most of all his narrative.
Look at them side-by-side on TV. Listen to them. The irascible old man and the golden boy. "I told you so," vs. "Yes, we can."
McCain is the war hero of a long, long-ago war. Sorry, my fellow Boomers, but no one cares about the 'Nam anymore. John McCain will always be a hero to me, the guy I'd want my son to grow up to be, but he's a hero out of the past. And we're going to be looking in November for a new hero.
We don't do the past in the US of A, we do the future. I'm not saying it's right; I'm just saying it is.
Update: Another post, rather better written than mine:
Leaving entirely aside the issue of the substance of the content, let's look at the match-up of the performers. Obama is doing the Little Richard version of Tutti Frutti, and McCain is doing the Pat Boone. Obama is Elvis, and McCain is Ed Sullivan.
Let's face it. On a visceral level, we've got a young, vibrant, hip preacher of positive change against an old and tired looking guy who wants to stay the course. McCain just doesn't seem to have any "game."