McCain's Odd Ad And Odds
John McCain is in a trap. His past is what makes him so attractive to people like me. But an ad campaign that's about the past is a very serious problem, especially with an aged candidate. He's running on Vietnam, and although it pains people of my generation to admit it, Vietnam might as well be the Spanish-American War for a lot of voters.
I'm reading blogs and comments suggesting that Obama can't win against McCain. Folks, after being shit-hammered for two weeks, Obama is within the margin of error in head-to-heads against McCain.
The GOP will use the Reverend Wright to hammer Obama. Obama will use Bush to hammer McCain. Reverend Wright means nothing to the vast majority of Americans. He's just the excuse Republicans who were never going to vote for Obama use to explain voting against him after a brief and insincere flirtation. But Bush is very real. And that picture of McCain embracing Bush will be seen again and again.
Either things are improving in Iraq, in which case McCain's signature issue is in the national rearview mirror. Or it's getting worse, in which case McCain will be hit for his continuing support of the war. In either case, this is looking like another Stupid Economy election year. And McCain has nothing on the economy.
Obama's been roughed up. But I still think he'll beat McCain.
Watch that ad. It'll make you admire McCain. For what he's done. For who he's been. It'd be a great ad, if we were electing the president of 20 years ago.
This entry was posted by Michael Reynolds, on
Friday, March 28, 2008.
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4:49 AM
michael reynolds:
There is something in what you say about McC. No doubt, you ve identified his weakness quite well.
Does that mean yr compatriots will elect a man who is 1.5 nautical miles to the left of George McGovern or poor old Mike Dukawhatshisname ? Who has less administrative experience than Nixon at the time of his election? Less international experince than Carter at the same time ? Not to talk - again - about the racial chip on his shoulder which is about the size of a pancake.
Now, that remains to be seen.
What about a good, vigorous VP candidate to balance the age issue? Not easy I know, but still...
Bets, anyone ?
11:19 PM
I don't think Obama is a leftist. His specific plans tend to be just a few millimeters to the right of Hillary. He's no radical. More importantly he doesn't play as a radical. He plays moderate.
McCain can't be helped (or probably harmed) by a Veep. The way people are addressing the issue reveals an underlying concern about McCain's age. I think this is a big problem for McCain.
5:35 AM
michael reynolds:
Right about McC`s age problem. I remember Reagan, though. Just a year younger I think.
Millimeters to the right of the Hillary ? I rest my case. I know where that is. Politcal correctness, victimhood, identity politics, protectionism.
Well, I am somewhat more than millimeters to the left of the late unlamented General Pinochet. Does that make me a liberal ?
Sure Obama plays moderate - I am quite confident he can play just about anything. But what is in that suit, really ?
You people will decide, I just watch. But I am still curious as to whether the emperor has any clothes.
8:37 PM
Mac's a creature of the past, no doubt about it. But the November question still remains- which swing states will be in play? Mac should hold most Red States and Obama will hold most solid Blue States. My sense is that swing states like IA, WI, and NM were leaning Barack pre-Wright. The Wright episode made those states a little redder. Still, it should be a Dem election in reaction to GWB.
I will say this- McCain has been incredibly lucky thus far, getting nearly every break conceivable (Macaca, weak GOP field, rising like a Phoenix after being declared dead, early nomination, Dem in-fighting). It'll be interesting to see how long this lasts- how long can a guy hold the dice before crapping out? Fundraising and excitement will be his biggest obstacles.