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Fearless Predictions.

I am bummed that I won't be able to watch the conventions.  The six hour time difference is tough to get around.   

But just because I'm cut off and clueless that doesn't mean I can't make predictions.  

The mistake will prove to be putting Bill on after Hillary.  Bill Clinton will give an 80% speech.  Nothing objectionable you can put your finger on, but he'll hold back.  The Obama people will be irritated but try to put a positive spin on it.

Hillary will go all in.  100%.  She's always been a better human being than Bill.  More of a grown-up.  But Bill will undo some of that.  If they'd gone the other way you could have used Bill's churlishness to give extra emotional impact to Hillary.   You want to go from low to high.  
Mark Warner will fall flat.  Biden will do fine, but not even Obama has the skills to overcome all the damage Bill and his dead-enders will do.

The wild card is Teddy Kennedy.  He's scheduled for the first night.  I hope they find a way to bring him back in on the last night.   He can bring the Clinton dead-enders into the fold.  They want to be in the fold, but they'll be hearing dog whistles from Bill.  Teddy can solve that -- if he's physically able, and if the Obama people figure out how and when to use him.

If Bill does damage, Obama will come out of convention up by 5% and more or less hold that through to the election.  (McCain will get a 5% bump from his convention, but that will evaporate within a week.)  If Bill plays nice or if Teddy can neutralize him, Obama comes out up by 7%.

Or not.  

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“Fearless Predictions.”

  1. Anonymous Anonymous Says:

    Hmmm... does Ted being "physically able" equate to Ted being "sober?"

    I'm just askin'...

  2. Blogger Michael Reynolds Says:

    You're going to feel so bad you said that. Teddy has brain cancer.

    Now don't you feel guilty?

  3. Anonymous Anonymous Says:

    I think (fortunately) you got it backwards. Hillary held back; she told her supporters what to do, but she didn't offer a reason better than "He's better than the alternative." Bill went beyond that and gave a positive endorsement to Obama, complete with compliments on his experience and judgment. I can't see how he could have gone more all-in than that.

    There are logical reasons for this; Bill's got nothing to lose by contradicting himself, but Hillary's probably planning to stick around for another run in 4 or 8 years. So whether it says anything about their respective humanity or adulthood is up for debate.