Did We Just Lose A War?

Did he just win?

We went into Afghanistan because that nation's government, the Taliban, was actively aiding Al Qaeda and allowing the use of their country as a safe haven for Al Qaeda. We wanted to ensure that whatever else might happen, Al Qaeda would not have a home base in which to safely house and train recruits.

But Pakistan has now surrendered (read this and this and this) portions of its to territory to the Taliban and by extension, Al Qaeda.

Here's the thing: we were able to attack Afghanistan. We cannot attack Pakistan. So long as Pakistan does not cede actual legal sovereignty to what is being derisively referred to as Talibanistan, an attack there would be an attack on Pakistan. The Musharraff government would almost certainly fall. And let's remember, Pakistan has nuclear weapons. Not theoretical, in-five-or-ten-years nukes, but actual, tested, mounted-on-missiles nukes.

The Pakistanis are trying to put out the word that the deal does not mean safe haven for Osama. But you know what? If the Sherriff says he won't ride into outlaw country that pretty much means he's not planning on arresting any outlaws.

Our goal was to deny Al Qaeda safe haven. That's why we fought the war in Afghanistan. If Al Qaeda now has found an even safer haven, then we jost lost that war.