<body><script type="text/javascript"> function setAttributeOnload(object, attribute, val) { if(window.addEventListener) { window.addEventListener('load', function(){ object[attribute] = val; }, false); } else { window.attachEvent('onload', function(){ object[attribute] = val; }); } } </script> <div id="navbar-iframe-container"></div> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://apis.google.com/js/plusone.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> gapi.load("gapi.iframes:gapi.iframes.style.bubble", function() { if (gapi.iframes && gapi.iframes.getContext) { gapi.iframes.getContext().openChild({ url: 'https://www.blogger.com/navbar.g?targetBlogID\x3d32209663\x26blogName\x3dSideways+Mencken\x26publishMode\x3dPUBLISH_MODE_BLOGSPOT\x26navbarType\x3dBLACK\x26layoutType\x3dCLASSIC\x26searchRoot\x3dhttp://sidewaysmencken.blogspot.com/search\x26blogLocale\x3den\x26v\x3d2\x26homepageUrl\x3dhttp://sidewaysmencken.blogspot.com/\x26vt\x3d7682481423868601741', where: document.getElementById("navbar-iframe-container"), id: "navbar-iframe" }); } }); </script>

Don't Get Your Hopes Up

Virginia Senator George Allen.

As predicted here, the Santorum Surge seems to have petered out. Races generally tighten as you approach the finish line but Rick (he who makes creep the flesh of decent people) Santorum had closed at a time when he was the only guy running ads. Even then he barely edged above 40%, which is not good when you are an incumbent Senator and neck deep in cash. The pundits love to talk about how Santorum finishes well. I don't think he'll do it this time. Bob Casey is a weak campaigner as we saw on Meet the Press, but Santorum is not achieving escape velocity.

But a bigger problem looms on the horizon for Democrats in the Senate. The usual math says Dems have to take six seats to gain control. (The Senate is 55/45 with the Veep casting the deciding vote in the event of a tie.) Six would be hard enough. Six would involve surfing a tidal wave. But my own personal suspicion is that the number is seven, not six: if Joe Lieberman wins Connecticut and the overall balance comes to 51 Dems to 49 Reps, Joe will flip to the Republicans. In fact he may flip regardless of balance.

Yes, he's said many times he'll caucus as a Dem, but I doubt it. I'm tired of hearing what a great, stand-up guy this windbag is. I think Joe is all about Joe, and he must know the Dems will shunt him aside in punishment for his disloyalty. If the Dems lose he'll be ranking member on the Senate Bait and Tackle Committee. If they win he'll be chairman. Whereas, if he flips, and especially if doing so saved the Senate for the GOP, they'd give him whatever he wanted. Perhaps his own Special Committee on Righteousness, Sanctimony and Pontification.

So I don't think the magic number is six, I'm afraid it's seven.

The possible Republican "take-aways" are sparse. GOP hope is fading in Minnesota, although it is neck-and-neck in New Jersey, and that could very easily go to the Republicans.

The possible Democratic "take-aways" appear to be Arizona (nah,) Missouri (eh,) Montana (could be,) Ohio (could be,) Pennsylvania (looks good,) Tennessee (nah,) Rhode Island (pray for Laffey to beat Chaffee in the primary,) and Virginia where that insufferable asshole George (the bully) Allen has been hurt some, but probably not enough, by his public display of assholery.

What does it all matter? Well, it might help the Democrats in 2008 if the Senate remained Republican. If the Dems take the House and Senate they'll have a full two years to demonstrate their inability to set any agenda other than Bush-bashing. Democrats would have far less opportunity to bob and weave and avoid serious issues. If they held some modicum of actual power people might start expecting them to answer questions and put forward solutions.

On the other hand, a Democratic House can amuse itself writing crowd-pleasing legislation and setting up giddy investigations without anyone taking it very seriously. They could write wondrously one-sided campaign reform legislation, for example, without any danger that it might become law. They could bring up for a vote any number of bills designed only to embarrass Republicans without any of the risk or effort involved in actual legislation. In other words: all fun, no work.

On the other hand, it's the Senate that votes on Supreme Court justices and there's some very old men and women on that court. If you could guarantee me Justice Stevens (current age: 149) wouldn't die in the next two years I'd say don't sweat the Senate, let's win the House, have some fun for two years, and focus energy and barely-suppressed rage on 2008.

Follow the polls as they develop at Pollster.com the new, and instantly indispensable site for political junkies.

Links to this post:

Create a Link

“Don't Get Your Hopes Up”

  1. Anonymous Anonymous Says:

    It's possible that Lieberman might flip, but might a moderate Republican not also make the move? Chafee, perhaps, if he survives this election? Snowe or Collins from Maine, even? If the November results give a 50-50 tie, I think the Republicans might once again be cocky enough to create a rerun of 2001 and cause another Jeffords to emerge.

  2. Blogger M. Takhallus. Says:

    You know, that is a happy thought. Chaffee, if he holds on, ought to think about it, altough the RSCC has supported him, so he may be insufficiently bitter.

  3. Blogger ninest123 Ninest Says:

    ninest123 09.17
    nike air max, gucci handbags, red bottom shoes, michael kors handbags, ugg boots clearance, michael kors outlet online, louis vuitton outlet online, polo ralph lauren outlet, louis vuitton, cheap oakley sunglasses, tory burch outlet online, burberry outlet online, ray ban outlet, louis vuitton handbags, louis vuitton outlet, longchamp outlet, prada handbags, ugg australia, michael kors outlet, replica watches, christian louboutin outlet, ugg outlet, christian louboutin, polo ralph lauren, louis vuitton outlet, cheap ugg boots outlet, oakley sunglasses, oakley vault, burberry outlet online, christian louboutin shoes, nike air max, tiffany jewelry, prada outlet, cheap ugg boots, michael kors outlet online sale, replica watches, nike free, michael kors outlet online, longchamp outlet online, longchamp handbags, tiffany and co, ray ban sunglasses, michael kors outlet store, nike outlet, jordan shoes

  4. Blogger ninest123 Ninest Says:

    michael kors uk, michael kors outlet online, ray ban uk, scarpe hogan, ray ban pas cher, lacoste pas cher, coach purses, ralph lauren pas cher, burberry pas cher, lululemon outlet online, hollister, hermes pas cher, nike roshe run, coach outlet, nike blazer pas cher, tn pas cher, longchamp, hollister uk, new balance pas cher, louboutin, chanel handbags, kate spade outlet, michael kors, vans pas cher, north face, oakley pas cher, true religion outlet, true religion outlet, air jordan, nike air max, north face pas cher, longchamp pas cher, true religion jeans, nike free pas cher, true religion, air max pas cher, sac vanessa bruno, timberland pas cher, kate spade outlet online, guess pas cher, coach outlet, converse pas cher, coach outlet store online, michael kors canada, nike air force

  5. Blogger ninest123 Ninest Says:

    nike free, nike air max, reebok shoes, ghd, wedding dresses, celine handbags, beats headphones, nfl jerseys, air max, jimmy choo shoes, mac cosmetics, hollister, mcm handbags, north face jackets, abercrombie and fitch, vans outlet, baseball bats, mont blanc pens, asics shoes, nike air max, ralph lauren uk, longchamp, giuseppe zanotti, p90x workout, nike trainers, insanity workout, instyler ionic styler, soccer jerseys, lululemon outlet, abercrombie and fitch, north face jackets, herve leger, ferragamo shoes, valentino shoes, birkin bag, nike roshe, mulberry uk, nike air huarache, chi flat iron, hollister clothing store, nike roshe, bottega veneta, soccer shoes, babyliss, new balance outlet

  6. Blogger ninest123 Ninest Says:

    air max, pandora uk, coach outlet, ugg soldes, replica watches, toms outlet, vans, ray ban, pandora jewelry, louis vuitton, converse, supra shoes, karen millen, hollister canada, marc jacobs handbags, louis vuitton pas cher, doke gabbana outlet, ugg boots, links of london uk, swarovski jewelry, ugg, iphone case, michael kors outlet, michael kors outlet online, thomas sabo uk, louis vuitton uk, timberland boots, pandora jewelry, juicy couture, uggs canada, converse shoes, louboutin, swarovski uk, oakley, sac lancel, montre femme, louis vuitton canada, abercrombie, ralph lauren, sac louis vuitton, gucci, michael kors handbags, juicy couture outlet, ugg, pandora charms, wedding dress
    ninest123 09.17