1) Obama wins Iowa behind a huge turnout. Youth voters actually showed up. First time since . . . ever.

Hillary may come in third. She's hurt. Bad. Dodd and Biden will drop out and their people will go to Obama.

Edwards will stagger along hoping for a miracle in Nevada or South Carolina, but he's done. No one gives a shit about Nevada: we'll let ourselves be bullied by Iowa pig farmers and New Hampshire cranks, but not by croupiers and cocktail waitresses.

Look for Hillary to go negative. Look for Bill to go after Obama. It's a knife fight now.

It's Obama's to lose.

2) On the red team it's the Huckabuffoon big over Mitt the Flip. Romney's done for. McCain will kill him off in New Hampshire. The GOP establishment then faces a choice: rally to the despised war hero who could actually win the general election, or pander to the Jesus! wing of the party and go down the tubes with Huckabee.

Why am I writing off Huckabee in the general? The numbers in Iowa show huge Democrat turnout, which means independents going for Obama. I guarantee you 99% of Huckabee's voters were hardcore GOP. In a general Huckabee would get dick from independents.

I have to believe the Republicans will choose winning over losing. I have to believe they'll rally to McCain, starting with Fred I-offer-myself Thompson. Look for Thompson to throw in for McCain.

3) Obama as the Democratic candidate would stall the Bloomberg flirtation, especially if it's McCain for the Republicans. The idea that independents had no viable choice would be laughed off.

4) My cuh-raaaazy prediction? Lou Dobbs considers getting in. McCain is "soft" on immigration, so is Huckabee. Neither will please the Mexican-haters. Lou Dobbs is a power-mad race-baiting bigot and he may decide to pull a Pat Buchanan and step up to represent the resentful.

(updated.) Look through the comments. Various writers have various alternative interpretations. Here's what's so cool about this election year: they're all valid. There is no certainty. Everyone gets to write a scenario, and all the scenarios are possible.

This is the greatest election year ever! Now we just need a brokered convention or two.

Just now on ABC news, Charlie Gibson ran a tape of various candidates responding to a question about "guilty pleasures."

Chocolate, peanut butter, ice cream, blah blah blah. Until Fred Thompson admitted he occasionally "chewed on" a cigar of "questionable origin."

Fred smokes Cubans.

Not quite enough to make me support him. But close.

See also: Bangor? I just met her!

Sorry. Sometimes I just have to get it out of my system.

Predictions . . . predictions . . . predictions . . .

1) Someone will win the election. They will turn out to be a huge disappointment.

2) We'll miss out on peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Damn! So close.

3) Some politician who hasn't watched a TV show since The Beverly Hillbillies or a movie since Red River will condemn the state of the media.

4) A conservative family values Republican will be caught blowing some guy. The rest will not be caught.

5) Iraq will not become a middle-eastern Vermont. It may however become a middle-eastern Louisiana, cementing Arab rejection of democracy.

6) Some much-admired sports figure will . . . oh, who gives a shit?

7) Pakistan will continue to be fucked up not only beyond all recognition, (FUBAR,) but fucked up beyond your wildest imagination. (FUBYWI.)

8) Castro will finally die. The giant Pez dispenser of irritating Spanish-speaking windbags will push Hugo Chavez up to replace him.

9) Celebrity ho's will tire of flashing their private parts to the paparazzi and begin to carry out human sacrifices on the hoods of their limos. Okay! magazine will outbid People for rights to pictures of Paris Hilton gutting and skinning a wino.

10) Canada will do something that not even Canadians will care about. Probably involving their cute little pretend government.

11) Global warming will melt Hillary Clinton.

12) In food news, studies will show that anything that doesn't taste like a sweaty guy's taint is carcinogenic.

13) Chinese manufacturers will be caught filling Peking dumplings with carpet tacks. US government regulators explain, "Hey, whaddya gonna do?"

14) Ann Coulter will be killed in a tragic bikini waxing incident.

15) The FBI, acting on an anonymous tip, will dig up Lou Dobbs' yard and find the decomposed bodies of forty-one Mexicans.

Next year we'll revisit these predictions and see how many I've gotten right! (Come on #14!)

Sweet:

DES MOINES, Iowa — Mike Huckabee doesn’t want anyone to see his latest ad attacking Mitt Romney — that is, except for Tim Russert and more than 100 top print and broadcast journalists.

While presidential aspirants traveled to far-flung Iowa towns all day Monday, Huckabee held a noon press conference to play a new, negative ad.

And he did so, but with the caveat that he had consulted his conscience and decided 10 minutes earlier not to air it in the Hawkeye State. Huckabee said he did not wish to follow the “conventional” strategy of hitting back harder than your opponent’s attack.

...

Repeatedly, Huckabee volunteered that some in the press might take a cynical view of his abrupt change of strategy. He was right about that, as several questions made clear.

Before the questions even came, there was a gale of laughter from the news media when Huckabee said he was going to play for the reporters the very ad that was too negative for Iowa voters.

There are two theories: that this was ineptly Machiavellian, or that it was stupidly sincere. I have another theory: this late in the game there's no significant amount of air time available. It's all locked up. So the Huck never had the option of getting it on TV in wide enough play to matter. Faced with this, poor Ed Rollins and his second Idjit Candidate (Perot was the first,) cooked up this pitiful attempt to get free media while trying to look simon pure.

Which would make Huckabee not only inept, but a liar as well.

So, adding up the Huckabuffoon's essential traits, we have: ignorance, ineptitude, intolerance, hypocrisy, dishonesty and . . . affability. No wonder the farm wives of Frozen Spittle, Iowa love him so.

Update: From the AP:

Huckabee took himself off the campaign trail Sunday to shoot a negative ad. He bought $30,000 in television time to air the spot and called a news conference to unveil it.

Which kills my spin on the conspiracy theory. Damn.

I wish I could do this kind of detailed, careful work.

I wish I saw as clearly as this guy.

I wish I could be this honest.

I wish I brought this sort of erudition to blogging.

I wish I knew this much about the constitution and the law.

I wish I always had this guy and this guy around to keep me honest.

I have the feeling this guy and I could have a really fun argument on religion. Same with this guy.

I wish I had this guy's passion for a candidate.

I've gotten drunk and talked politics half the night with this guy, and suspect I'd have fun doing the same with this guy.

I wish I could work this hard.

All that having been said, I curse better than any of them. So, Happy Fucking New Year.

He's a giving, giving man:

WASHINGTON, Iowa (AP) -- Fred Thompson acknowledged Saturday he's not especially fond of running for president, but he thinks he'd be a good choice for the White House.

Asked at a town hall meeting in Burlington whether he had the desire to be president, Thompson said it wasn't his idea to seek the office, and he wasn't enamored with campaigning.

"I am not consumed by personal ambition. I will not be devastated if I don't do it," he said. "I'm not particularly interested in running for president."

But he said others convinced him to run.
....

"I'm offering myself up. I'm saying that I have the background and capability and the concern to do this."

Offering himself up. Let's savor that for moment. He's offering himself up as the most powerful human being on planet earth. Shucks and golly, he doesn't really want the job. He's just offering himself. You know, in case we look around and can't find anyone better.

Sigh.

Look, Fred, here's the thing: we voters know perfectly well that there are a thousand people out there who would do a better job as president than any of the current candidates. No doubt many of them would offer themselves up, if that's all that was required. Sadly, the job isn't one that is bestowed on you. It's one you fight for. We're not choosing Mr. Popularity, we're choosing the Warrior Chief of Clan America.

If you won't fight for the job what evidence do we have that you can fight, period? This ain't Sweden, pal, this is the United States of 9,000 deliverable nuclear warheads. You won't be asked to arbitrate disputes involving saunas and sexy blondes, we're a superpower. The superpower. We take names and kick ass. We blow shit up. We are the only cop walking a very, very tough beat. And you think we'll bestow that job on you because "others" convinced you to run?

Throg not want be chief. Throg not want kill mastodon. Throg's friends say: you look-um like chief. Throg's wife want live big white cave.

Thanks ever so much, Fred. It's damned decent of you to offer yourself up for the White House, Air Force One, and a lifetime pension. Generous is what I'd call it. Once we bestow the job on you, no doubt you'll be able to mumble and aw-shucks your way through four years of battles with Russia, China, North Korea, Al Qaeda, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Malaysia, Sudan, Venezuela, Cuba, Hezbollah, Colombian drug lords, the health care industry (damn right I put them on a list with Al Qaeda,) big oil, big environment, the media and Congress, because I'm sure all of the people involved likewise had their jobs bestowed upon them subsequent to their offering themselves up.

Hey, actor boy: we like to see you fight. You know why? Because we're not choosing the chairman of the philosophy department.

Yes, it's a bunch of silliness: freezing in Iowa, begging for money, shaking the hands of hillbillies, giving the same speech a billion times, being snarked at by reporters, getting bitch-slapped by Hillary Clinton. But it's our national version of a frat hazing. It's our national Parris Island. No doubt it could be done better. But it's what we have, it's how we weed out the weak.